What Experts See Coming in 2024

As we are marching forward into 2024, experts from various industries have shared their ideas and opinions about what might happen in the world i.e. things like money, markets, countries and technology. In the latest Prediction Consensus in the 2024 Global Forecast Series where they have taken 25 of the most talked-about ideas from these experts over 700 sources i.e. reports, interviews, and podcast, a bingo card illustration has been formed to show what the experts think could be the big trends and opportunities for the rest of the year. It is like a sneak peek into what might happen in 2024, according to these experts.

Economy and Market in 2024

Based on all screened economic forecasts and predictions, many experts and analysts share similar views on the following:

On inflation, following a consistent decrease in inflation rates across various economies throughout 2023, numerous analysts predict a continued cooling-off trend toward targeted levels. Though a few acknowledge that the final push to reach these targets might pose challenges, there is a general consensus that the likelihood of a resurgence in inflation, akin to the spikes observed in 2022, is low.

On interest rates, major banks predict interest rate cuts by mid-year of 2024 from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England due to expected inflation control. Analysts differ on the number of cuts, ranging from three to six, while Federal Reserve board members foresee a more conservative two to three cuts.

On markets, as interest rate cuts loom, experts cautiously predict positive outcomes for both stocks and bonds in 2024. Bond yields are expected to decrease with falling rates, while the AI theme continues to boost equities. Diversifying portfolios is a key focus in the 2024 investment strategy, especially amidst looming geopolitical risks.

On real GDP growth, the global growth outlook remains subdued, with forecasts ranging from 2.5-3%, slightly below the 10-year average (2013-2022) of 3.1%. The U.S. anticipates a slowdown, with the IMF projecting a decline from 2.4% in 2023 to 1.5% in 2024. Europe is also set to experience sluggish growth, with a forecast of 0.9% in 2024. 

When examining global trends, numerous experts foresee India surpassing China in real GDP growth this year, particularly if the ongoing shift of manufacturing and foreign investment away from China persists.

Geopolitical Outlook for 2024

Expectations for sustained global tensions in 2024, stemming from conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas, prompt experts to identify geopolitical escalation as a top risk. Ongoing disruptions in marine shipping, triggered by Yemen’s Houthi militants, are likely to persist, with retaliatory U.S. strikes contributing to global trade challenges.

Resolving conflicts appears uncertain, as experts anticipate further escalation and potential involvement of additional countries. The year is also significant for global elections, including the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, India, and Mexico, introducing the potential for significant geopolitical shifts and ongoing instability.

Artificial Intelligence in 2024

Following its breakout in 2023, artificial intelligence confronts challenges in a pivotal year. While technological progress is certain, concerns over regulation and legal disputes, exemplified by the New York Times’ lawsuit against OpenAI, emerge as significant issues. The potential misuse of AI during global elections raises calls for stricter regulation, potentially tempering the expected explosive growth in AI product development. Experts anticipate the EU taking a more assertive regulatory stance compared to the U.S.

The Takeaway

In 2024, the interconnectedness of the global economy, markets, geopolitics, and technological progress is particularly pronounced. The intricate relationships between these factors carry both positive and negative implications. Forecasts suggest that advancements in AI could herald a new bull market and a golden age of productivity, but there are concerns about potential job disruptions that our labour markets and society may not be adequately prepared for. Despite the world experiencing increased polarization and geopolitical fractures, the predictions underscore the profound dependence of the global economy’s health and future on the intricate interplay of these interconnected factors.